Beware the herd. Gold seems to be one of the most loved trade ideas right now, which for us is a warning sign and leads us to look elsewhere. Equally, the market was very quick to discount US-Iran tensions, suggesting a high degree of common thinking there too. Here's why popular ideas worry us and what we think that means right now.;
The rise of Chelsea and Man City shows that it takes a lot of money to break into the Champions League elite, but once you're there, it creates a virtuous circle. The same is true for inflation. There is a self-reinforcing loop of high inflation expectations, wages and prices. But the 2014 oil shock looks to have knocked the US and Japan out. Consumers' inflation expectations remain stubbornly low.