Tim Drayson

Head of Economics

Tim Drayson
Tim keeps a close watch on global economic developments, with a particular focus on the US. He believes nothing good ever happens after midnight, which is why he is rarely spotted out late. Tim joined in 2008 from the number-one ranked economics team at ABN AMRO, with prior experience from HM Treasury, and graduated with a MSc from the University of Nottingham. When not crunching economic data, he can be found studying the weather forecast, analysing his cycling statistics or looking anxious on three-foot putts.

Other articles by Tim Drayson

Pinning the tail on the donkey
Tim Drayson
Economics

Pinning the tail on the donkey

The output gap is one of the most important concepts for macro investors. Unfortunately, it is ve...
By Tim Drayson
19 Feb 2024
3 min read
New year resolutions of an economist
Tim Drayson
Economics

New year resolutions of an economist

I was wrong about a US recession last year and while some of the risks are receding, the market i...
By Tim Drayson
03 Jan 2024
3 min read
Pain delayed, not averted
Tim Drayson
Markets and economics

Pain delayed, not averted

Unsustainable US fiscal support and a favourable reversal of supply shocks have led to increased...
By Tim Drayson
11 Dec 2023
3 min read
We are never ever getting back together
Tim Drayson
Economics

We are never ever getting back together

Excitement around a US soft landing continues to build, yet we think some of the positive news on...
By Tim Drayson
07 Sep 2023
4 min read
Chart of the month: A surge in US manufacturing investment
Tim Drayson
Markets and economics

Chart of the month: A surge in US manufacturing investment

US manufacturing investment has risen sharply in recent quarters, with a focus on domestic...
By Tim Drayson
01 Sep 2023
1 min read
US fiscal irresponsibility reaching its limit?
Tim Drayson
Markets and economics

US fiscal irresponsibility reaching its limit?

The Fitch downgrade to the US sovereign rating is largely symbolic, but it brings attention to th...
By Tim Drayson
07 Aug 2023
5 min read
Where is the US recession?
Tim Drayson
Economics

Where is the US recession?

It's the third quarter and still no recession. Has it been postponed or averted?
By Tim Drayson
31 Jul 2023
3 min read
USA: Still on track for recession?
Tim Drayson
Economics

USA: Still on track for recession?

We are approaching the point we have been expecting a US recession to begin. While so far this ha...
By Tim Drayson
16 May 2023
3 min read
The Late Late Show
Tim Drayson
Markets and economics

The Late Late Show

Recent events suggest this cycle is approaching its denouement, even if it remains uncertain how...
By Tim Drayson
16 Mar 2023
3 min read

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Matthew Rodger

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