Commodities
Beware the herd. Gold seems to be one of the most loved trade ideas right now, which for us is a warning sign and leads us to look elsewhere. Equally, the market was very quick to discount US-Iran tensions, suggesting a high degree of common thinking there too. Here's why popular ideas worry us and what we think that means right now.;
Economics
Markets are getting excited by the prospect of a 'Phase One' US-China trade deal and the rollback of tariffs. But this also felt close in May and fell apart. Here's why we worry about today's consensus narrative and think that this story may not have a happy ending. ;
Economics
The cracks are showing and everybody wants to understand what could cause the US to break. Here's why we think trade troubles and corporate concerns are the main issues. I also explain why traditional recession indicators may be false prophets this time around...;
Economics
US consumers’ inflation expectations sitting at a 53-year low resolves one of today’s macro puzzles: why is wage inflation still subdued despite low unemployment? When adjusting for inflation expectations, real wage growth is as rapid as in previous economic booms.;
Economics
Trade tariffs are a major concern for investors. The impact so far has been muted, but the risk of escalation looms. 25% tariffs on all Chinese goods are a credible threat from US President Trump but global auto-tariffs would be a much bigger risk to the US economy, encouraging others to launch a combined response. Find out more in my vlog below.;
Economics
On the face of it, Donald Trump has proven to be an aggressive and erratic US president. Yet academic research shows 'good cop, bad cop' works as a negotiating technique. Although we're seeing a lot of 'bad cop' Trump at the moment in the trade war, is this just a negotiating tactic?;
