ESG and long-term themes
For decades, demographers were too pessimistic on life expectancy and had to revise up their forecasts. Are they now too optimistic? Recent data suggest that UK ‘death rates’ have stopped improving. If sustained, life expectancy projections would need to be revised down. This would have profound implications for government and pension finances.;
ESG and long-term themes
Developing countries face more favourable demographic prospects than the ageing developed markets. But it takes more than favourable age structure to boost growth. To reap the demographic dividend, many developing countries need much better conditions for employment and investment.;
Economics
Ageing populations are reducing global trend growth. However an army of grandmas is boosting the UK labour force because of changes to retirement ages. This means UK trend growth should hold up relatively better than the US. However, an offsetting end to immigration would see the UK labour force freeze.;
Economics
One thousand years ago, King Canute got his feet wet trying to hold back the ocean. Today, Donald Trump is trying to hold back the demographic tide. Investors risk ending up being left underwater by higher inflation unless they take appropriate evasive action.;
Economics
Ageing demographics have probably halved US trend growth from 3¼% to 1½%. The number of retirees is outstripping school leavers for the first time ever. So immigration - a key concern of President-elect Trump - is now the only driver of working-age population growth.;