Currency
Brexit hasn't even happened yet but it is already affecting the economy, creating volatility in the GDP data. With the data for the second quarter of 2019 being released, I spoke to Bloomberg about what is going on and whether the weakness in sterling will boost exports.;
ESG and long-term themes
Opinion polls suggest a 'total wipeout' for the Conservative and Labour parties if a general election was held tomorrow; the 1993 Canadian Federal election offers some clues about what that would mean for 'outsider' political parties – and sterling.;
Economics
With so much still up in the air regarding Brexit, making predictions is difficult – particularly about the future. But we can prepare for a range of different outcomes and market environments, pruning our ‘probability tree’ as events evolve. Here’s our latest scenario analysis.;
Economics
In a surprising result, the general election has ended in a hung parliament. At the time of writing, the Conservative party has won approximately 318 seats. Labour is at 261, the SNP 35, the Liberal Democrats 12 and the DUP 10. UKIP did not win any seats. When Theresa May called the snap election in mid-April it was hers to lose, with the Conservatives leading Labour in the polls by around 20 percentage points – the highest since the early 1980s – which could have yielded a majority of circa 100 seats. In the event, the gamble has failed to pay off, and the governance of the country hangs in the balance.;
