Economics
In a raging bull market there is always the temptation to buy the laggards in the hope of juicy returns from a 'catch-up' trade. Unfortunately, all too often you end up in a value trap instead: there’s a reason the stock has lagged and that reason often turns out to be annoyingly persistent. There’s no doubt that Mexico meets the laggard definition. But I would argue that there’s a strong case it could actually be a catch-up story.;
Economics
Monetary policymakers are often described as heading into “uncharted territory”. The latest example is the Bank of Japan’s decision to introduce a target for ten-year yields. You won’t find a precedent of this policy in recent history. But the territory is not totally uncharted: we saw something very similar in the USA roughly seventy years ago.;
Economics
Conventional wisdom says Donald Trump doesn’t stand a chance against Hillary Clinton in a general election. Although a Trump presidency is not our base case either, its probability seems too high to ignore, with significant potential implications for US assets.;
