Economics

The American dream
Economics

The American dream

We believe the unanticipated surge in US immigration is helping to increase the chances of an...

By Tim Drayson

20 Mar 2024

4 min read

Pinning the tail on the donkey
Tim Drayson
Economics

Pinning the tail on the donkey

The output gap is one of the most important concepts for macro investors. Unfortunately, it is ve...
By Tim Drayson
19 Feb 2024
3 min read
An economist’s guide to Red Sea risks
James Carrick
Economics

An economist’s guide to Red Sea risks

The recent attacks in the Red Sea are likely to disrupt the quantity as well as prices of importe...
By James Carrick
22 Jan 2024
4 min read
New year resolutions of an economist
Tim Drayson
Economics

New year resolutions of an economist

I was wrong about a US recession last year and while some of the risks are receding, the market i...
By Tim Drayson
03 Jan 2024
3 min read
Sticky wicket
Economics

Sticky wicket

How the UK's worse 'inflation memory' could keep services inflation sticky and put the Bank of...

By James Carrick

21 Sep 2023

3 min read

Revising up UK GDP: What are the implications?
Economics

Revising up UK GDP: What are the implications?

Recent updates to historic data imply the UK's economic rebound following the COVID-19 pandemic w...
By James CarrickChristopher Jeffery
11 Sep 2023
3 min read
We are never ever getting back together
Tim Drayson
Economics

We are never ever getting back together

Excitement around a US soft landing continues to build, yet we think some of the positive news on...
By Tim Drayson
07 Sep 2023
4 min read
Where is the US recession?
Tim Drayson
Economics

Where is the US recession?

It's the third quarter and still no recession. Has it been postponed or averted?
By Tim Drayson
31 Jul 2023
3 min read